Weather Forecast is all over the place this weekend (27 - 28 May)

From yesterdays forecast I would have called this weekend flyable all weekend long. What a difference another 12 hours makes. I am not sure now.

For Today, from the BOM, today looks more possible over tomorrow. The Blipmap is now calling the winds to be from the NE and light early (which is what we are seeing on the Mt Boyce current readings) but later the wind will swing round to the NW and increase to >10Kts. Windity is also forecasting this to happen after the low cloud clears after 9:00AM. So Today could be flyable, depending on how well the wind comes around in the afternoon. Advanced pilots may be able to take advantage of the NW and lighter conditions to soar the North cliffs early, but should be careful (as always) that the wind doesn't come too far around to the West and make the North face trashy.

Like last Sunday (which I think i got wrong), it is defiantly a call from the hill by some experienced pilots.

For Sunday, the forecast now looks trash from BOM, with showers developing and the wind increasing throughout the day. Windity is not forecasting any rain, but does agree with the increasing winds, which may get too strong for flying from midday. If you are out early it may be a nice morning, but beware of the wind mixing down from high as the morning progresses. It is a classic trap that has caught out a lot of (experienced) pilots, where it is a lovely soaring morning, but as soon as some thermals start it gets blown out and before you know it your stuck up behind launch getting trashed. But if you are keen, early is key.

With the forecast being a little unreliable lately, I cant stress how important it is to have one of the BMHGC SOs present to make a call on the weather before you launch.

Good flying

Alex.

Flying today and tomorrow (20-21) if you can avoid the rain

I didn't post here yesterday because of the hype and noise about the rain coming out of the news all week. Waking up this morning in Sydney, it is not as wet as I expected, so some of us may be tempted to go for a flight.

The wind forecast (check blipmap and windity) doesn't have anything dangerous forecast at the current time, with conditions improving throughout the weekend. Rain and cloud wise, today is forecast to be wet this morning and then again  later this afternoon, which I would expect to be related to the thunderstorms forecast by the BOM. Windity, (aerogram) has 0.2mm this morning and 0.3mm this afternoon, so probably better to give it a miss.

Tomorrow, again has light rain early, with low clod hanging around until lunch time when it clears. This corresponds to the change in wind (blipmap) so I would expect Sunday afternoon to be quite nice. The rain today and tonight will keep things subdued thermal wise, so it may be quite a pleasant ridge soaring opportunity.

Having said all that, remember Blackheath is wedged between two forecast zones. So in reality, and especially this weekend, we will have to be there and observe.

Fingers crossed.

Windy forecast 6 and 7 May

The forecast for this weekend looks like it will be a bit too windy for flying. Saturdays forecast is missing from the Blipmap. The BOM has the wind as being on the strong side. Normally anything over 15 to 20 km/h means the day will be too strong. This is backed up by the Winidity forecast. Dragging the altitude scale up, the wind soon gets very strong. the forecast for the wind is to increase throughout Saturday and Sunday morning before easing in the afternoon on Sunday.

If we are lucky there is a slight chance of a glass off very late on Sunday afternoon, but that is a fair way off for the forecast and the direction is predicted to be very south in the current forecast...

Starting to get a bit tired of writing up bad forecasts. Where is the good flying weather?

Alex.