Again I have missed the Friday post with the forecast. Sorry about that. Today looks like it is already on at Blackheath, so grab your gear and head out already! It should be on all day until sunset. The wind may be a bit crossed to the south and expect thermal activity off the cliffs during the day with the sun beaming down unhindered. Hopefully today's forecast was obvious enough so you didn't miss out.
Tomorrow (Sunday) looks like a nice day, but unfortunatly over the back at Blackheath. Check the updated forecast in the morning, experienced pilots may find something to push them along if they can launch. Better bet will be on the coast, Stanwell, Longreef etc...
Alex.
Friday, April 28, 2017
Friday, April 21, 2017
Flying this weekend - Forecast 22-23 April
Sorry for the late post. I wasn't near a computer today.
This weekend weather doesn't look that stellar for flying in the Blue Mountains. At first glance the BOM forecast paints a wet weekend. Looking at the Airgram on Windity, the rain is forecast to only happen early in the mornings or overnight, but the low cloud will hang around nearly on the ground most of the Morning. So back to the Blipmap animation and the wind is forecast to be suitable on Saturday afternoon. This is also when the cloud is lightest. Sunday has the wind swinging to the east early on in the day so no good.
So If we are lucky with the rain forecast, then Saturday afternoon may give us a window for some nice ridge soaring. But, this forecast is pretty difficult, so really needs a human observation from takeoff.
Good luck.
Alex.
P.S. If anyone is around, can they message me with the conditions so I can write a follow up with how the weekend was and gauge the accuracy of the forecast.
This weekend weather doesn't look that stellar for flying in the Blue Mountains. At first glance the BOM forecast paints a wet weekend. Looking at the Airgram on Windity, the rain is forecast to only happen early in the mornings or overnight, but the low cloud will hang around nearly on the ground most of the Morning. So back to the Blipmap animation and the wind is forecast to be suitable on Saturday afternoon. This is also when the cloud is lightest. Sunday has the wind swinging to the east early on in the day so no good.
So If we are lucky with the rain forecast, then Saturday afternoon may give us a window for some nice ridge soaring. But, this forecast is pretty difficult, so really needs a human observation from takeoff.
Good luck.
Alex.
P.S. If anyone is around, can they message me with the conditions so I can write a follow up with how the weekend was and gauge the accuracy of the forecast.
Thursday, April 13, 2017
Weather forecast for the long weekend
The forecast is for sunny skies with light winds, which is a nice outlook for the long weekend.
For Friday, the winds will be very light and crossed from the south, so later in the day after the sun has come around to the west face will make for some nice conditions. We may even be lucky to have enough energy for a glassoff. However, with the prevailing winds crossed from the south the lift may be light and it may be hard to stay up. It will likely be a mix of thermals or bunched up ridge soaring/thermaling at the northern end of the Mt Blackheath cliffs. Blue skies all day, but the forecast trace says it is unlikely to be inverted, just doesn't get quite hot enough to reach cloud base and climbs will be slow.
Saturday looks like the winds will mix down from late morning with the wind right on the face from the West. This could make it easy to stay up all afternoon. There should be a nice cloud-base of around 8000 - 9000 feet during the middle of the day. I would expect a nice glassoff in the evening.
Sunday is still a bit far off, but looks to be a repeat of Saturday.
Monday is too far off for now, but BOM is forecasting more unstable weather. Might end up being the best day of all four. But that is me daydreaming a bit...
So for me Saturday and Sunday afternoons are the best pick for most likely chance of flying for all, I just I hope i can be a part of it too. Low chance of being blown out but still possible if the thermals are strong.
I will try and post an update over the weekend. The forecast is really only good for tomorrow and the day after.
Alex.
For Friday, the winds will be very light and crossed from the south, so later in the day after the sun has come around to the west face will make for some nice conditions. We may even be lucky to have enough energy for a glassoff. However, with the prevailing winds crossed from the south the lift may be light and it may be hard to stay up. It will likely be a mix of thermals or bunched up ridge soaring/thermaling at the northern end of the Mt Blackheath cliffs. Blue skies all day, but the forecast trace says it is unlikely to be inverted, just doesn't get quite hot enough to reach cloud base and climbs will be slow.
Saturday looks like the winds will mix down from late morning with the wind right on the face from the West. This could make it easy to stay up all afternoon. There should be a nice cloud-base of around 8000 - 9000 feet during the middle of the day. I would expect a nice glassoff in the evening.
Sunday is still a bit far off, but looks to be a repeat of Saturday.
Monday is too far off for now, but BOM is forecasting more unstable weather. Might end up being the best day of all four. But that is me daydreaming a bit...
So for me Saturday and Sunday afternoons are the best pick for most likely chance of flying for all, I just I hope i can be a part of it too. Low chance of being blown out but still possible if the thermals are strong.
I will try and post an update over the weekend. The forecast is really only good for tomorrow and the day after.
Alex.
Thursday, April 6, 2017
Lots of new interest in flying at Blackheath
It is that time of year again, when the seabreeze at the coast is unreliable and many new pilots are looking for a new place to fly.
I have fielded a lot of emails from new pilots asking about the weather this weekend or another time. The BMHGC uses a private message group for discussing flying, which is available to current BMHGC members. For all the visiting pilots and new pilots asking about club activities and weather forecasts I will be posting a weekly update here for the next few weeks, with a consensus from the club members, safety officers etc... So come back and have a look here before firing off an email. Don’t forget the weather forecast resources here. You will get a much friendlier response if you put in the effort to check the forecast before you send a message or ring someone local.
For this weekend, I will give my opinion to start with and make another post if there any different opinions. Please note this is just a prediction, so don't blame me if you drive up and find it is raining or decide to stay home and miss out. For the Mt Blackheath site, unless you have aPG5/HG5 rating, you need the OK from a BMHGC SO or SSO, on the day, on the ground, before you fly.
Saturday: The wind is from the North most of the day and light high cloud is forecast. You may have a flight if you are a topgun, but it wont be much fun. Takeoff will be impossible from Blackheath and there wont be any ridge soaring potential. At least it wont be raining so you can go for a bushwalk.
Sunday: Clear morning but raining in the afternoon. As soon as the sun comes out the wind will mix down and it will be blown out. Dangerous if you are tempted for a dawn/early morning flight.
Monday: At this stage the longer range forecast says dont get excited it will be raining. Come back and have a look for a chance over the long weekend if we are lucky.
Next forecast will be on the Thursday before the long weekend.
Thanks for your cooperation,
Alex Drew.
I have fielded a lot of emails from new pilots asking about the weather this weekend or another time. The BMHGC uses a private message group for discussing flying, which is available to current BMHGC members. For all the visiting pilots and new pilots asking about club activities and weather forecasts I will be posting a weekly update here for the next few weeks, with a consensus from the club members, safety officers etc... So come back and have a look here before firing off an email. Don’t forget the weather forecast resources here. You will get a much friendlier response if you put in the effort to check the forecast before you send a message or ring someone local.
For this weekend, I will give my opinion to start with and make another post if there any different opinions. Please note this is just a prediction, so don't blame me if you drive up and find it is raining or decide to stay home and miss out. For the Mt Blackheath site, unless you have aPG5/HG5 rating, you need the OK from a BMHGC SO or SSO, on the day, on the ground, before you fly.
Saturday: The wind is from the North most of the day and light high cloud is forecast. You may have a flight if you are a topgun, but it wont be much fun. Takeoff will be impossible from Blackheath and there wont be any ridge soaring potential. At least it wont be raining so you can go for a bushwalk.
Sunday: Clear morning but raining in the afternoon. As soon as the sun comes out the wind will mix down and it will be blown out. Dangerous if you are tempted for a dawn/early morning flight.
Monday: At this stage the longer range forecast says dont get excited it will be raining. Come back and have a look for a chance over the long weekend if we are lucky.
Next forecast will be on the Thursday before the long weekend.
Thanks for your cooperation,
Alex Drew.
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