Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Outlook 13, 14, 15 September

My take on forecast.

13th. Light NW winds in the am, becoming W and blown out by 2pm, increasing thru the afternoon. Base about 2400 about 2pm. Climbs average 2.5 m/s. Blue.

14th. Mostly SW and S winds, but probable light east at launch height. Either launch 10am in SW before E pushes under, or possible launchable cycles lunchtime onwards. Base around 1900. Climbs 2.4 m/s.  Blue.

15th. W winds around 20kmh. Base 2500. Climbs 2.8 m/s. CUs 1pm onwards. High cloud 4pm onwards.

My thoughts.
Friday, maybe fly early with caution, land by noon. "Blowing out" forecast is not what I like in my flying forecast.
Saturday, looks reasonable if you manage to get off launch. Possible XC towards Lithgow. Convergence line setting up during the afternoon from Blackheath - Newnes.
Sunday, maybe, maybe not. The wind will probably be too much for PG to enjoy.

Remember that peak climbs likely to be double the average given here.

*** Warning though, spring seems to have well and truly sprung early this year, conditions are already boisterous. If you are a low airtime pilot, expect that safety officers will advise flying outside of peak of day conditions.

*** If you haven't already read it, flip through our weather primer to help your understanding of Blackheath's weather puzzle.

*** Please note that the Mt Blackheath Holfuy is not working properly and needs maintenance.

*** These posts are intended as a reference only, they do not supercede the responsibility of a pilot making the call to not fly.